As regular readers will recall, we published a Guest Editorial at the beginning of last year in our January-February 2010 issue, authored by Jon Brock, President of Desert Sky Consulting Group, in which he pondered the stage of Smart Grid development. At the time, Brock was asking the not-so-rhetorical question: “Is the Smart Grid over-hyped?” He went on to quote the high-profile market research and consulting firm, Gartner Group, as saying that Smart Grid technologies serving the utility industry were nearing the peak of their “Hype Cycle” at that time.

In case you need a refresher, the Hype Cycle is a process that Gartner says every technology goes through. It consists of five stages: 1) On the Rise; 2) At the Peak; 3) Sliding into the Trough; 4) Climbing the Slope; and 5) Entering the Plateau. Brock’s contention at the time was that the ‘hype’ period was ending and Smart Grid was teetering at the edge of Stage 3: “Sliding Into the Trough.” But whether or not you agree or disagree with that assessment, interestingly enough, the hype has continued.

For some reason there seems to be a general feeling that Smart Grid needs some kind of a punch line – something really big and bold – before it can be fully legitimized or validated. However, I think those expectations may be misplaced, especially if we consider where we really are and where we think we need to be now that we have all of this hype under our belts.

First of all, I think you have to look at all of this from an evolutionary, rather than revolutionary, perspective. When it comes to automation – now that we’re about 50 years into it – we’ve clearly come a long way, and of course, we still have a long way to go. But within the past five decades we’ve seen mainframe computers give way to minicomputers; then microcomputers, followed by micro-controllers, IEDs, smart phones, and most recently, ultra low-cost, ultra low-power sensors and endpoints. And so far, technology advancement is showing no signs of a slow down. During that evolution, however, there has been a lot of revolution with each passing stage. I won’t say that we’re past the potential for revolutionary developments — that’s always just around the corner — but for energy and utility markets, I think we can say with some alacrity that we’re ready to capitalize on the evolution that has already taken place. Simply stated, it’s time for things to crystalize to provide that tangible ROI along with all of the other promised benefits.

Think of it this way: 25-30 years ago, almost nothing was off-the-shelf, standardized, or interoperable from one generation to the next — there was LOTS of room for REvolution! But today, that has all changed; standardization (electrical, mechanical, etc.), compatibility and interoperability abound. Among other things, that means we don’t really need a lot of revolution at this point. What we do need is application-centric (i.e., real-world problem-solving) value – and that only rarely, if ever, comes in the revolution phase.

Now, before you get all excited and accuse me of being ‘anti-innovation’ (hardly!), let me clarify that I’m talking about traditional products, systems, platforms and markets — the ones we all know so well like GIS, CIS, SCADA, etc. These are mature markets for which the initial investment costs are dwarfed by the life-cycle costs. Sure, there’s still plenty of room for revolutionary developments – and they will happen – but these mature markets are now stable enough to wring tangible value out of those massive investments made over the passing decades.

So rather than clamoring for a Smart Grid revolution, let’s put our efforts toward capitalizing on the fruits of the evolution that has already taken place – and in doing so, help to prepare ourselves for whatever ‘revolution’ comes next. – Ed.