This month marks the fourth anniversary of the IEEE-Power & Energy Society (PES) Transmission & Distribution Conference that was (supposed to be) in New Orleans in 2006 – or at least that was the plan before Hurricane Katrina hit a few months before, causing the conference to be held in Dallas for an unprecedented twice in a row.
In 2004 the stage was all set for this landmark event to take place at the now infamous New Orleans Convention Center, and I remember looking forward to not having to travel to be able to attend a major conference for a change. But then, on August 29th a Katrina made landfall on the western edge of the Mississippi Gulf Coast – a scant 60 miles from here – and in a matter of less than 24 hours it changed everything. As we all know, there were lots of casualties, the most regrettable of which was, of course, the loss of life. No one who lost a loved one in Katrina or its terrible aftermath will ever forget that dark day in our history.
But there were other kinds of casualties too. The plans, hopes and dreams of families and institutions all across the Gulf Coast region were put on hold and in some cases, utterly destroyed; businesses and the jobs they provided vanished overnight without even a trace left behind; structures that were thought to be impervious to most any man-made threat or assault, quickly disappeared in a deadly confluence of wind and water. Suddenly, nature was our enemy, and we felt helpless to defend ourselves against it – and correctly so.
Anyone who has ever personally experienced a mega-disaster like a hurricane, an earthquake, a volcano or a flood knows exactly what I mean. It’s a life-changing experience. You live your life differently from that point forward, and you eventually come to accept these foundational changes as what I’ve often referred to as The New Normal. Yet somehow we manage to adjust and adapt – we quietly reset ourselves and accept the altered state.
By contrast, when it comes to the fundamentals of our infrastructure – mainly air, water and electricity – we’re far less likely to adapt. We’re not inclined, nor are most of us able, to simply tell ourselves we can just “adjust and adapt” to using less water or less power for a prolonged stretch, much less for an indefinite period of time. But today, it is exactly that type of life-altering behavior that is probably in our future, if not already here. Using less of our natural resources and using what we absolutely must consume in a more efficient and environmentally responsible way is the implicit prescription for the future – whether we like it or not.
On that note, it’s important to acknowledge that we are learning – albeit slowly – that those resources are not infinite (as we once tacitly assumed) and that there are things we can do to mitigate old “comfortable” behaviors without completely changing everything. But some discomfort is definitely in our future; perhaps a lot. Here are a few examples…
First of all, nobody I know wants transmission lines in their back yard (or their front or side yard, for that matter!), but just because we’re finally making measurable progress toward a renewable energy portfolio, it surely does not obviate the need for transmission lines; actually, quite the contrary. Indeed, some recent studies evaluating the amount of sheer real estate – measured in acres or square miles for wind and roof-acres for solar – show that the process required to site these potentially huge contiguous usage areas is actually quite onerous, so much so that even some of the most prominent environmental groups are acknowledging the formidability of the task.
As it turns out, it might actually be easier – meaning faster and less costly and perhaps even less damaging to the environment – to site a fossil plant than to implement these renewables on a scale that would be significant in terms of overall energy production – bummer!
Another real hornet’s nest is the controversy surrounding the integration of renewables into the grid, even if we assume that the transmission problems are solvable within a reasonable time frame and cost structure and, that the regulatory and environmental barriers will become more accommodating over time.
The diagrams I’ve seen of wind production look like a toddler scribbling on a piece of paper. I can’t imagine how one would begin to model such an obtuse experiment in unpredictability, at least as it relates to the transient stability of the grid. Okay, storage is the simplistic answer, but now you’ve really said a mouthful. If someone has already figured that one out, please do tell…
In any case, as I said last month in this column, it’s time for some serious thinking outside the box. I mentioned some of the latest advances in fuel cells and these things called nuclear batteries in that column that have the potential – remember I said potential; not panacea – for solving not only the distributed resources issue but also the insidious transmission proliferation problem. However, I cite this only as an example of the kind of innovative, “Hey, nobody told me this was impossible!” thinking and creativity that will almost certainly be needed to get us out of the mess we’re in.
Meanwhile, every couple of years the IEEE-T&D Conference lands in a major metropolis, bringing with it the best and brightest ideas for addressing and solving the problems that vex and befuddle us on a daily basis. I’m not saying that the conference that will be underway as you read this holds all of the answers to our energy woes, or that this will be the year that we go all the way. But although it took the New Orleans Saints 42 years to get to the Super Bowl, they finally pulled it off! So when the “saints” go marching into the New Orleans Convention Center this year, almost anything is possible. – Ed.
