As we move into the second quarter of the year, this is a good time to reflect on how well electric energy experts did with their wrap-up of 2024 industry trends and predictions of what to expect in 2025.

With the rapid pace of technological change, especially in the utility space, predicting the future of electric energy has never been easy. This year, it may be even more difficult. Not only must the utility sector address ongoing issues like aging infrastructure, growing energy demand and rising energy costs, but there is also a significant shift in the political landscape in the United States, adding further uncertainty to the situation.

Political shifts: The Biden to Trump transition

The transition from the Biden Administration to the Trump Administration has brought a stark contrast in leadership approaches to electric energy. President Trump’s policies, particularly in his second term, reflect a focus on fossil fuels and resistance to advancements in the alternative energy sector. Key actions have included:

• Suspending offshore wind development permits.
• Halting funding for clean energy initiatives under the Inflation Reduction Act.
• Pushing for increased fossil fuel production.

Impact on the energy sector

As a result of these changes, the energy landscape is filled with uncertainty. The imposition of 10% tariffs on Canadian energy products by the Trump Administration has raised concerns among consumers and investors about the potential effects on the U.S. economy. With electricity consumption predicted to rise and energy prices continuing to soar, it’s no wonder that consumers are feeling increasingly anxious.

Decline in consumer confidence

Further complicating the situation is the significant decline in consumer confidence. According to The Conference Board, February of this year saw the largest monthly drop in consumer confidence since August 2021. Stephanie Guichard, senior economist at The Conference Board, explained that consumer pessimism is growing, particularly regarding future business conditions, employment prospects and income expectations. This sense of uncertainty is not just confined to the energy sector but is affecting the broader economy as well.

Maintaining momentum

Despite the challenges, there are some positive aspects to this situation. Events like DISTRIBUTECH, CIGRE and those hosted by IEEE continue to draw record crowds of industry partners. Case in point, there were 17,000 attendees at DISTRIBUTECH 2023, with the number increasing slightly in 2024. The 2024 IEEE PES T&D conference drew over 13,000 participants from more than 70 countries, which is up from the 2022 conference which drew 10,450 participants representing 63 countries.

This is a strong indication that international momentum for the energy transition continues, and that there is no sign of the renewable energy industry grinding to a halt.

The energy transition is inevitable

In this issue’s Powherful Forces column, we profile Susan Stone, CEO of startup company Blue Current Energy. In the context of upcoming challenges due to Trump’s focus on fossil fuels, including his signed “Unleashing American Energy” executive order, Stone’s insights are particularly relevant. When I asked whether she was concerned about the Trump Administration’s policies affecting Blue Current or the push towards grid modernization in general, Stone responded by emphasizing that energy, by its very nature, will continue to move forward. The energy transition, she believes, is inevitable.

You can read the full interview with Susan Stone on page 62.

Fossil fuels in the U.S. and the global energy transition

This year promises to be an interesting one with Donald Trump’s return to the White House. We will see how electric energy providers, industry partners and consumers react to the Trump Administration’s stance on fossil fuel versus alternative energy, and whether it will affect the global market. If Trump once again pulls out of the Paris Agreement, the remaining participants, representing approximately 200 countries from around the globe, will continue to push towards net-zero carbon emissions by 2050.

The future of fossil fuels will likely depend on the success of the global energy transition to cleaner energy. To compete on a global level, the U.S. must continue to keep pace with the rest of the world in terms of the type of energy it produces. If the industry is encouraged to shift back to prioritizing fossil fuels, it must not cast aside past efforts on renewable energy.

In a few months, we will see how industry predictions played out, examine the latest trends and assess where the U.S. stands on its grid modernization efforts compared to the rest of the developed countries.

As always, if you would like to contribute an article on an interesting project, please email me: Elisabeth@ElectricEnergyOnline.com

Elisabeth