The electric vehicle (EV) industry expanded tremendously in 2017 (up 26 percent over 2016, compared to an overall car market decline of one percent), and as prices continue to drop and adoption rates grow, we at EPRI predict that 2018 will prove equally as transformative.
In 2018, we’ll continue to see momentum around EVs, predominantly as a result of manufacturers establishing production facilities on a global, multi-disciplinary scale and bringing more EVs to market. Less than a decade ago, if someone asked me what the key indicators of EVs becoming a profitable market trend were, I would have told them to look at automaker investment and adoption rates. But today, we’re seeing the source of the trend stem from consumer demand and automakers, sustained by large investments, governing bodies, and emerging technology.
Automakers will always invest carefully in technology that will help them appeal to consumers in order to meet sales goals, so this investment isn’t that surprising. However, we’re seeing monetary investments higher than ever before. In September of 2017, Volkswagen announced an $84 billion investment in EVs and batteries. Years ago, we’d see announcements about a single EV option per automaker. In 2016, major automakers offered 24 different electric vehicle models to consumers and just a year later, we’re seeing fully developed company roadmaps and complete EV series. Automakers have announced nearly 100 different EV models that will be available to customers and dealers by 2021. Electric vehicles are no longer a company “one-off” to maintain relevance and profitability. They are now an intricate part of an automaker’s technology portfolio and its future strategy.
Due to increased adoption rates, EVs are also being further integrated into company growth strategies – for both automakers and utilities – and are even being incorporated into economic development strategies and regulatory policies. Government institutions and entire nations are now having thoughtful conversations and putting forth large investments into electric vehicle technologies. In 2017, several nations indicated that they’re going to begin phasing out combustion engine vehicles as a strategy to speed up their country’s EV adoption. China, the world’s largest auto market, recently announced that it would set a deadline for automakers to stop selling non-electric vehicles. This is a move to eventually end the creation of gas automobiles. Additionally, in early December, New York Governor Andrew Cuomo announced the availability of $3.5 million in new funding to spur EV adoption, as part of the state’s goal of to cut greenhouse gas emissions by 40 percent by 2030.
At the same time, barriers will break down in 2018 as the EV product portfolio expands. City transportation authorities and delivery companies are increasingly interested in creating an EV infrastructure to convert heavy-duty diesel-powered transit buses and delivery trucks to cleaner technologies. There are even prototypes of electric ferries. These developments are building excitement and providing great opportunities. By providing impartial information as the customer’s trusted energy advisor and establishing EV charging programs to increase customer options, utilities can also help to further the adoption of EVs in their own communities.
The possibilities for EV development and expansion in 2018 are exciting. That said, there is no doubt that the EV industry will continue to push beyond its own boundaries in order to promote customer choice, cost-savings and long-term environmental sustainability.
Mark Duvall is managing is the director of Energy Utilization at the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI), an independent, non-profit center for public interest energy and environmental collaborative research. He is responsible for EPRI’s research and development programs for all end-use and customer electric technologies, including electric transportation, energy efficiency, demand response, energy storage, distributed generation, power quality, electrification and customer behavior. His areas of technical expertise include vehicle design, electric and plug-in hybrid powertrain systems, energy storage system design, end-use electrification and infrastructure, and testing.
Prior to joining EPRI in 2001, Duvall held the position of principal development engineer at the Hybrid Electric Vehicle Center of the University of California, Davis. He began working in the field of advanced transportation in 1990 and has led the development of several prototype advanced plug-in electric vehicles. He received his bachelor’s degree in 1990 and his master’s degree in 1994, both in mechanical engineering, from the University of California, Davis and a doctorate in mechanical engineering in 1998 from Purdue University. He is a member of SAE and IEEE.
