We expect increases in the Henry Hub natural gas price in 2025 and 2026 as demand for natural gas grows faster than supply, driven mainly by more demand from U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) export facilities, reducing the natural gas in storage compared with the last two years. In our January Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), we forecast the U.S. benchmark Henry Hub natural gas spot price to increase in 2025 to average $3.10 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) and in 2026 to average $4.00/MMBtu from the record low set in 2024.
In 2025, we expect increases in demand, which includes domestic natural gas consumption and exports, will exceed increases in supply, which includes domestic natural gas production and imports. Consumption and exports increase by almost 3%, or 3.2 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d), in our forecast, outpacing the 1.4 Bcf/d growth in production and imports, leading to a 43% increase in the Henry Hub price. In 2026, we expect demand to continue to grow faster than supply, increasing prices by an additional 27%.
