ENTSO-E Summer Outlook 2023: no adequacy risk is identified except for the close monitoring required in Ireland.

The adequacy risk identified in Ireland at the end of summer season is driven by the notable planned outage of conventional generation in Northern Ireland (expected to exceed 600 MW). The actual adequacy situation in Ireland will depend on the operational conditions: on unplanned outages of the aging generation fleet in Ireland and especially on wind generation.

Some residual risks are identified in rather isolated Mediterranean Islands: Malta, Cyprus and Creta. These risks may emerge in the event of high unplanned outages of generation fleet and unfavourable weather conditions when demand is high and RES generation is low. Malta relies on non-market resources to ensure security of supply.

The Summer Outlook is accompanied by a retrospect of last winter. Notable preparations were taken by TSOs and Member States before winter 2022–2023 in light of the war in Ukraine.

The weather conditions were favourable during most of the winter, and hydro stock also improved immediately prior to winter, alleviating adequacy concerns for winter 2022–2023. Notably colder than average temperatures were recorded only in December in the Northern part of Europe, but this also coincided with periods when consumers typically consume less electricity due to approaching holiday periods.

Furthermore, a decrease in demand was recorded as a result of EU measures taken to save energy (EU emergency intervention) and also as a response to the high electricity prices faced by European consumers. In Ukraine, a good balance and the stability of the power system was maintained despite the regular attacks on Ukrainian electricity infrastructure during the winter. Continental Europe TSOs—and especially neighbouring TSOs—have supported the Ukrainian system since 30 June 2022, when the commercial electricity exchanges were resumed.

Preparations for next winter 2023–2024 have begun. The TSOs’ feedback as well as the gas situation show a much more confident picture than one year ago. No specific concern was identified. Preparedness and tight cooperation with the European Commission, TSOs and Members States will continue in the coming weeks.