The New York Independent System Operator (NYISO) released its 2023-2042 System & Resource Outlook (The Outlook), which provides a wide-ranging assessment of future transmission and generation investment opportunities driven by economics and public policy.

Electricity demand is expected to increase by 50% - 90% over the study horizon, driven by electrification of housing and transportation sectors, and energy-intensive economic development projects. The Outlook highlights that while historic levels of investment in the transmission system have been made, more is necessary to achieve public policy mandates. Additional voltage support facilities must also be added to the grid in upstate New York to fully employ the transmission facilities already in place, the study finds. Opportunities for further transmission investment in Western and Northern New York should be monitored as generation is developed in those regions.

"Recent transmission investments are making great strides towards the full integration of renewable power across New York State," said Zach Smith, Senior Vice President of System & Resource Planning at the New York Independent System Operator. "More will be needed, however, to maintain system reliability and achieve public policies."

The Outlook also finds that between 100 and 130 gigawatts (GW) of installed capacity will be needed to reliably meet forecasts in increased demand while also meeting the state's energy policy mandates. Of that total, at least 20 GW of dispatchable emission-free resources (DEFR) will be needed by 2040 to replace the current 25.3 GW of conventional fossil-based generation.

The Outlook notes that future DEFR technologies could include (but are not limited to), long-duration batteries, small modular nuclear reactors, hydrogen-powered generators, and fuel cells. No DEFR technology is currently available at a commercial scale. The Outlook notes that research, development, and construction lead times of DEFRs may extend beyond the state policy timelines, which may require existing generation to remain in operation to maintain system reliability.

To learn more, download the NYISO's 2023-2042 System & Resource Outlook and fact sheet.

The New York Independent System Operator (NYISO) is a not-for-profit corporation responsible for operating the bulk electricity grid, administering the competitive wholesale electricity markets, conducting comprehensive long-term planning, and advancing the technological infrastructure of the electric system serving the Empire State.