As you read this, Mardi Gras 2007 will be but a faint memory and our other annual event – the New Orleans Jazz & Heritage Festival – or “Jazz Fest” as it is now widely known – will be running its course before hundreds of thousands of visitors in late April and early May. Yes, despite the lingering devastation of Hurricane Katrina, the spirit and culture of this area has managed to rise above the fray with two of the biggest and most popular fun-fests on the planet going on as always. But, this isn’t about those realities – it’s about perceptions. As it is often said, perception is truth, and the older I get, the more cogent that cliché becomes.

If you’re surprised to learn that anything is back to normal here, you’re definitely not alone. The fact is, a lot of folks have developed perceptions about our situation without ever being here. Yet for them, it has become reality… their personal truth. But New Orleans has always been a study in contrasts, and post-Katrina, those contrasts are more pronounced than ever. Notably, some parts of the city appear untouched while other areas look pretty much just as they did on August 30th – the day after Katrina.

These days when people ask me about how the area is doing now, I usually say: “If you just land at the airport and take a cab directly to the French Quarter you would never guess that anything bad happened here. On the other hand, if you stray just a few blocks off that path, an entirely different scenario unfolds; you’ll likely feel like you’ve wandered onto the set of a future-shock movie.” But not everyone has the opportunity to see first hand what has happened here. Instead, many are left to their own perceptions.

Just the other night a spokesperson for the New Orleans Convention Center was being interviewed. When he was asked how the city was doing with regard to retaining and attracting conventions, the answer – like the city itself – was mixed. He said that whenever he could get a convention planner or their representatives to visit the city, they almost always sign up (or re-book) once they see the actual conditions and that the Convention Center, French Quarter and supporting businesses are mostly back up and running.

By contrast, those who refused to take a look themselves made their decisions based exclusively on their perceptions. In those cases, the events hanging in the balance are usually lost to other venues. And, although those negative perceptions are in many cases far off the mark, the outcome is still the same: Everybody loses something that could have had a positive outcome.

Then, just a few nights ago I was amazed to hear again (on national news!) that there remains a large group of people out there who think that the city is still under water! As anyone who has been here knows, that is definitely not the case and hasn’t been for a very long time. But obviously that doesn’t alter the perceptions that some people accept as the truth.

As I wrote in my last column (The Madison Avenue Factor; March/April 2007), our human propensity toward believing we can tell the difference between truth and perception is legendary. In reality, however, thinking that we are unaffected by the bending, shaping and molding of the truth into something entirely different often leads us to the wrong conclusions – and sometimes drawing the wrong conclusions has consequences.

Let me offer a few examples of what I mean…

• There’s a seemingly widespread notion that we can keep on running utilities the way they always have and that automation is still a luxury. While it’s certainly true that we don’t need to replace everybody with computers, the perception is that we can just go on the way we always have; automating only when regulators require it or when there is no other alternative. (See what happens over the next 5-10 years as Baby Boomers leave the workforce and infrastructure with 35-50 year useful life expectancies continue to decline for lack of investment.)

• Trade shows are routinely judged by attendance – almost exclusively on a quantitative basis. That is, the success of a given event is usually determined by how many people register, without regard to the quality or classification of those attendees. The truth is that it only takes one really good product/ service discovery to make attending a conference worthwhile or a few good contacts to more than pay for exhibiting; but the perception is that if the attendance isn’t equal to or greater than last year’s event, next year’s participation should be re-evaluated and possibly nixed.

• A lot of suppliers perceive that because over 75% of annual automation/IT expenditures are made by the largest (mostly investor-owned) utilities, calling on the more than 3,000 smaller municipal and cooperative utilities is a waste of time and resources when in fact, expenditures by smaller utilities are rapidly increasing, both as a percentage of overall expenditures and especially in terms of average project values.

Catch my drift? Well, just to be sure, let me offer some additional detail that should help frame the issue.

In March of this year I attended the 30th Annual Conference of the Geospatial Information & Technology Association (GITA) in a warm and sunny San Antonio. I’ve been to a lot of these conferences since my first one in 1988, and while some things have changed, a lot has remained the same.

For one thing, this conference always puts on a stellar educational program. There’s a good reason for that; education is – and has always been – the underlying fabric of the GITA membership and management. Education is the centerpiece of GITA’s annual conference not just because of its status as a non-profit professional association, but also because that was the premise upon which GITA was founded – and they have remained true to that commitment for over 30 years.

However, even though education is a big draw for most utilities looking for tangible value from their attendance and support of conferences like this one, the numbers for Conference 30 in San Antonio were down from prior years. It was pretty easy for anyone who had been to previous conferences to see that several exhibitors’ booths had been downsized and that the aisles weren’t as crowded as they have been in the past. So, naturally the perception of some attendees was that the conference wasn’t as good as last year. Some even questioned whether it would survive for another year. As I said, that was the perception.

The truth is that Conference 30 attendance was down to 1,520 from last year’s 1,855 – a decline of 335 participants, which at first blush might seem like a relatively significant decline. However, when one digs into the numbers, we find that of that 335 fewer attendees, over 200 of them were vendor personnel. And, while GITA certainly values the participation of its exhibitors and their staffs at the conference, this decrease is directly attributable to vendors bringing smaller sales contingents to the conference and a corresponding reduction in booth size. The recent surge in supplier consolidations/ acquisitions has clearly led to fewer exhibits this year and, hence, a net reduction in booth personnel; no one should be surprised by that, but perceptions can be powerful.

GITA’s leadership is aware of the situation and has definitive plans to do whatever it can to halt and hopefully reverse this industry-wide trend. “The industry is changing, and GITA is absolutely devoted to taking on the challenge of addressing these changes on behalf of our members and constituents to accommodate all of the exciting shifts in geospatial technology,” said Bob Samborski, GITA’s executive director. “We know we have work to do and we will be actively seeking the input of our exhibitors and conference attendees to help make this happen.”

Another reality, however, is that despite GITA’s best efforts and those of the many other conference managers and organizations serving the utility automation/IT market, some components of this trend may be largely irreversible. To be sure, supplier consolidation is likely to continue, utilities seem destined to keep on merging and reducing head counts, and budgets for conference attendance will continue to be squeezed as other educational and information sources – most notably the Internet and mobile data – will continue their inevitable proliferation.

While this spells trouble for the trade show community at large, corrective actions are being taken, albeit a slow process. In GITA’s case, they are among the first organizations to take pro-active steps toward sharing future conference venues with those of other conferences having geospatial market relevancy. (Although GITA’s initiative was not necessarily a direct result of our Jan/Feb 2007 Utility Horizons column, you may recall that co-location was a central theme of that editorial. - MM)

Moreover, GITA has initiated an extensive plan to revamp the 2008 event. Included in that plan is research to gauge exhibitor expectations and a detailed survey of attendees’ reactions to this year’s educational content. GITA staff and members of the Board of Directors plan to meet with Seattle area GIS, utility, public sector, transportation, emergency response, co-op, health care, and other organizations in May 2007 to build a ‘circle of champions’ for developing a top-notch, relevant educational program and spreading the word about the conference locally and regionally.

What I hope this illustrates to you, our readers, is that the difference between perception and truth can be profound. Whether it’s the aftereffects of a hurricane or the future of an industry conference, it’s worth taking the time to peel back the leaves of the onion to judge the facts for yourself before making any decisions you might regret later. Failure to test your perceptions and making decisions based on less than the true facts, can quickly turn Truth-or-Perceptions into Truth-or-Consequences.

- Mike

Behind the Byline
Mike Marullo has been active in the automation, controls and instrumentation field for more than 35 years and is a widely published author of numerous technical articles, industry directories and market research reports. An independent consultant since 1984, he is President and Director of Research & Consulting for InfoNetrix LLC, a New Orleans-based market intelligence firm focused on Utility Automation and IT markets. Inquiries or comments about this column may be directed to Mike at MAM@InfoNetrix.com. ©2007 Jaguar Media, Inc. & Michael A. Marullo. All rights reserved.